Isla Vista, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

518
FXUS66 KLOX 231136
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
336 AM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...23/154 AM.

Periods of light rain are likely through today, followed by
mostly dry conditions south of Point Conception on Sunday. Monday
and Tuesday, the region will see on and off rain. Rainfall totals
are expected to be fairly minimal, especially for Los Angeles
County. Then dry conditions are favored for the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...23/335 AM.

A period of cool and unsettled weather is upcoming for the region,
lasting into mid next week. Powerful mid-latitude cyclones
rotating off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will transport
moisture into the region in a couple of pulses. The first period
of rain will last through today. The second event will start
Sunday and extend through at least Tuesday.

The first rain event is underway, as an extensive cold front has
swept into the region. Light rain has been falling overnight for
western San Luis Obispo County. Totals thus far mostly been under
a quarter of an inch, except for over 2 inches along the Santa
Lucia Mountains, where the typical terrain enhancement has
dramatically increased accumulation totals. Additionally, gusty
southeast winds will last into early this morning for portions of
San Luis Obispo County.

The band of rain will travel south this morning, sliding down the
Central Coast and reaching Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties
by mid-morning and LA County around noon. A few hours of light
rain is expected with this storm. Minimal rain totals are
anticipated with few impacts other than wet roads and reduced
visibilities. For San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties,
around 0.25-0.75 inches, except for around 2 inches for the Santa
Lucia Mountains. Los Angles and Ventura Counties can expect up to
around 0.25 inches, with much of LA County seeing under 0.10
inches.

The next rain event will take on the features of a weak
atmospheric river, with zonal flow aloft allowing for a stream of
moisture transport. Thus this event will offer a more extended
period off on- and- off rain Monday and Tuesday across the region.
Shower chances will linger on Sunday for San Luis Obispo and
Santa Barbara Counties, however for LA/Ventura Counties conditions
are likely to be dry. Rain will start to pick up for the northern
counties Sunday night, with chances for rain reaching LA County by
Monday. Accumulation totals are still expected to be minimal with
this second event. LA County is likely to see widespread
0.10-0.30 inches, and Ventura County will see up to around 0.5
inches. For SLO/SBA Counties, higher accumulations are expected up
to around an inch for the low levels. The southerly flow
component with this storm will allow for enhanced totals for
south- facing slopes, with up to 4 inches possible for the Santa
Ynez and Santa Lucia. Impacts are still expected to be minimal for
this event, as rain rates are well below flooding thresholds, and
there are no significant snow or thunderstorm concerns. However
there is a slight (10 percent) chance of rain totals over
performing and/or localized flooding impacts with this event, in
particular for SLO and SBA Counties.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...23/331 AM.

Tuesday will be another day of on-and-off rain for the region, as
previously mentioned. By Wednesay, only slight chances of rain
will linger, with mostly dry conditions expected. A weak ridge is
favored to develop late next week, leading to a warming trend
into the weekend. Temperatures are likely to be within a few
degrees of normal by Friday. There also a growing potential for
light- to- moderate offshore flow for Thanksgiving Day into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1044Z.

At 1040Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was based around 1500 feet.
The top of the inversion was 3100 feet with a temperature of
15 degrees Celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAF package. High confidence
in light rain for all sites through this afternoon, but only
moderate confidence in timing of rain as well as timing of flight
category changes (could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes and timing of light rain could be +/- 3 hours of current
forecasts. There is a 20% chance of an easterly wind component of
6-8 knots in the 12Z-22Z time frame.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes and timing of light rain could be +/- 3 hours of current
forecasts.

&&

.MARINE...23/244 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Sunday
night and Monday morning, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level
winds across PZZ670/676. From Monday afternoon through Wednesday,
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Today through Wednesday, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in
current forecast. Today through Wednesday, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PST early this morning for
      zones 340-344. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox